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A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.

Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."

Call for Broader Debate

Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."